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Operations Console · FY26 W16

Distributor Anomaly Detection

Multivariate z-score surveillance across 24 distributors and 6 operating metrics. Each cell is scored against a rolling 8-week trimmed baseline — relative to its own history, not peer-compared. The system surfaces 2 critical, 5 flagged, and 33 watch-list conditions this week.

MethodRolling z-score · trimmed meanBaseline8-week trailingThresholds|z| > 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5
Cells scored
144
24 distributors × 6 metrics
Critical
2
|z| ≥ 3.5
Flagged
5
|z| 2.5 – 3.5
Watch
33
|z| 1.5 – 2.5
Peak deviation
4.1σ
largest |z| this week
Surveillance Grid

The z-score heatmap

Each cell = (distributor, metric). Click ◆ cells to drill into the forensic story.

Sales
Locs
RPL
Hold
Sess.
Take
D-11
Texas Plains
+1.4
-0.8
-0.2
+4.1
+0.6
-0.0
D-04
Great Lakes South
-3.8
-2.7
-1.9
-0.3
-0.8
+0.2
D-22
Southeast Inland
+3.4
+2.1
+0.5
-0.5
-1.3
+0.4
D-18
Carolina Piedmont
-1.8
+0.3
-2.4
+1.6
-3.2
+1.3
D-09
Pacific Northwest
+0.3
-0.4
-2.9
-0.1
-1.6
+0.1
D-15
Mountain Front Range
+1.6
-0.8
+0.8
-1.3
+0.5
-2.6
D-06
Mountain West
-2.1
+2.4
+1.2
-0.7
+0.9
+0.3
D-21
Ohio Valley
-2.2
-0.1
-0.9
-1.8
-2.2
+1.2
D-02
Great Lakes North
-0.1
+0.8
-0.4
+1.0
+1.3
-2.2
D-12
Mid-Atlantic West
+2.2
-1.7
+1.7
-0.7
+0.9
-0.5
D-08
Northeast Corridor
+0.3
-0.6
+0.2
-2.1
+0.8
+0.5
D-13
Florida Peninsula
+1.9
-1.6
+1.0
-1.2
+1.7
-1.2
D-10
Southwest Desert
+1.9
-0.8
-1.6
-0.1
-0.3
+0.4
D-07
Texas Gulf
-0.8
-1.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-1.8
D-03
Pacific Coast South
+1.8
+0.3
+0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-1.0
D-20
New England
-0.5
-0.5
-1.7
+1.7
+0.1
+0.9
D-19
Gulf Coast East
-0.1
-0.6
+0.6
+0.0
+1.7
-1.1
D-24
California Central
+0.2
+0.4
+0.7
-1.0
+0.8
+1.6
D-17
Great Lakes East
-0.4
-0.3
+1.6
+0.6
+0.1
+0.2
D-01
Mid-Atlantic East
-0.7
-0.5
+1.6
+1.6
-0.4
+0.5
D-14
Heartland Central
-1.2
-1.6
-0.3
+0.3
+1.5
-1.2
D-05
Southeast Coastal
+0.5
-1.1
-0.3
+0.9
+1.4
-0.5
D-16
Pacific Coast North
+0.6
+0.3
-0.1
+0.5
+0.8
-0.2
D-23
Northwest Plains
+0.1
-0.1
-0.8
+0.0
-0.4
-0.1
Z-score scale
-4-3-2-1+0+1+2+3+4
◆ drill-down
Active alerts
D-11Hold
+4.1σ
Texas Plains · Game Hold %
◆ DRILL-DOWN AVAILABLE
D-04Sales
-3.8σ
Great Lakes South · Net Sales (WoW)
◆ DRILL-DOWN AVAILABLE
D-22Sales
+3.4σ
Southeast Inland · Net Sales (WoW)
◆ DRILL-DOWN AVAILABLE
D-18Sess.
-3.2σ
Carolina Piedmont · Sessions / Day
◆ DRILL-DOWN AVAILABLE
D-09RPL
-2.9σ
Pacific Northwest · Revenue / Location
◆ DRILL-DOWN AVAILABLE
D-04Locs
-2.7σ
Great Lakes South · Active Locations
D-15Take
-2.6σ
Mountain Front Range · Distributor Take
D-06Locs
+2.4σ
Mountain West · Active Locations
D-18RPL
-2.4σ
Carolina Piedmont · Revenue / Location
D-21Sales
-2.2σ
Ohio Valley · Net Sales (WoW)
D-02Take
-2.2σ
Great Lakes North · Distributor Take
D-12Sales
+2.2σ
Mid-Atlantic West · Net Sales (WoW)
D-21Sess.
-2.2σ
Ohio Valley · Sessions / Day
D-08Hold
-2.1σ
Northeast Corridor · Game Hold %
D-22Locs
+2.1σ
Southeast Inland · Active Locations
D-06Sales
-2.1σ
Mountain West · Net Sales (WoW)
D-04RPL
-1.9σ
Great Lakes South · Revenue / Location
D-13Sales
+1.9σ
Florida Peninsula · Net Sales (WoW)
D-10Sales
+1.9σ
Southwest Desert · Net Sales (WoW)
D-07Take
-1.8σ
Texas Gulf · Distributor Take
D-03Sales
+1.8σ
Pacific Coast South · Net Sales (WoW)
D-18Sales
-1.8σ
Carolina Piedmont · Net Sales (WoW)
D-21Hold
-1.8σ
Ohio Valley · Game Hold %
D-12Locs
-1.7σ
Mid-Atlantic West · Active Locations
D-13Sess.
+1.7σ
Florida Peninsula · Sessions / Day
D-20RPL
-1.7σ
New England · Revenue / Location
D-19Sess.
+1.7σ
Gulf Coast East · Sessions / Day
D-12RPL
+1.7σ
Mid-Atlantic West · Revenue / Location
D-20Hold
+1.7σ
New England · Game Hold %
D-10RPL
-1.6σ
Southwest Desert · Revenue / Location
D-18Hold
+1.6σ
Carolina Piedmont · Game Hold %
D-15Sales
+1.6σ
Mountain Front Range · Net Sales (WoW)
D-24Take
+1.6σ
California Central · Distributor Take
D-09Sess.
-1.6σ
Pacific Northwest · Sessions / Day
D-17RPL
+1.6σ
Great Lakes East · Revenue / Location
D-01Hold
+1.6σ
Mid-Atlantic East · Game Hold %
D-14Locs
-1.6σ
Heartland Central · Active Locations
D-13Locs
-1.6σ
Florida Peninsula · Active Locations
D-01RPL
+1.6σ
Mid-Atlantic East · Revenue / Location
D-07Locs
-1.5σ
Texas Gulf · Active Locations
Distribution

Z-score histogram

The bulk of cells sit within ±1.5σ as expected under the null; the tail cells are the ones the surveillance grid escalates for review.

Center mass
72%
within |z| < 1.5
Negative tail
5
cells with z ≤ -2.5
Positive tail
2
cells with z ≥ 2.5
Expected under H₀
1.8
|z| ≥ 2.5 by chance
Forensic Drill-Down

Game Hold beyond +4σ for three consecutive weeks

Hold has stabilized at 11.4% vs an 8-week trimmed baseline of 7.6%. Onset coincides with the W11 PRF math model rollout — most likely a planted change, not an anomaly.

Time series · 16w
Game Hold %
Texas Plains · onset W11 · sustained 3 weeks
+4.1σ
Critical
Dashed · baseline (8-wk trimmed mean)Gold band · ±2σ toleranceSolid · observed
Contributing factors
Decomposition of the deviation
PRF math model rollout (W11)84%
Game mix shift toward higher-hold titles11%
Player composition (no material change)3%
Residual / unexplained2%
Recommended action

Confirm with Math team that the W11 model is the designed change. If so, suppress this anomaly from the weekly flag list and re-baseline.

Owner
Math · CRM
Status
Open · investigating
Method
How the score is built

For each (distributor, metric) cell, the current week's value is compared to the trailing 8-week trimmed mean — the highest and lowest observations are dropped before averaging, which makes the baseline robust to single-week shocks. The deviation is divided by the trimmed standard deviation of the same window, yielding a z-score naturally normalized across metrics of different scales.

Three tiers structure the response. Watch (1.5 ≤ |z| < 2.5) accumulates without action. Flag (2.5 ≤ |z| < 3.5) opens a forensic investigation. Critical (|z| ≥ 3.5) escalates to the weekly leadership briefing. Under a standard normal null, about 1.2% of cells reach |z| ≥ 2.5 by chance — roughly 1.8 of 144 cells. This week shows 7, materially above that baseline and consistent with real signal rather than noise.

SD.
Surveillance run · FY26 W16 · Refreshed Mondays
Illustrative · Anonymized